al bogari Holdings

Gold surges on weak housing data

Karlo Alfredo — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 07:37:02 +0000

Gold opened at $ 1104.60 and traded mostly higher in Asia and London market to a high of $ 1113. In U.S market gold climbed to a high of $ 1119 and it fell back near unchanged in early afternoon trade, but it then surged back higher in the last half hour of trade and finally settled at $ 1118. After a disappointing housing numbers, the U.S dollar index started unwinding and gold market saw a surge in prices. Gold had a small down week trading at its current level of 1116, compared to last week’s close of 1126. Gold technical appears to be positive with $ 1131 as its resistance and support is seen at $ 1113 and $ 1103.

Data and Events for U.S today:
• Core PCE Price Index month on month expected at 0.1%
• Personal Spending expected at 0.4%
• ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to be at 57.7.

Gold driven by changing fundamentals

Karlo Alfredo — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 07:40:10 +0000

Gold opened at $ 1103 and saw narrow gain to $ 1106.50 in Asia. In London Market it fell to see as low as $1090, but it then climbed back up in U.S market to $ 1104 and ultimately it fell back and closed at $ 1096.50. Bernanke’s continued assurance to keep interest rates at exceptionally low levels for an extended period knocked down U.S dollar index initially but it still kept its key levels intact. Traders might have a perception that a slow economic recovery will lead to low investment demand in commodities sector, which might have wane Investment buyers in gold. Contradicting factors like euro currency is weak but other commodities and Crude oil are firm is limiting the fall in gold price. Technically gold has broken the support at $ 1098 and trading near to $ 1092. Expecting gold find resistance $ 1098 and revised downside target being $ 1078.

Data and Events for U.S today:
• Core Durable Goods Orders Month on Month expected at 1.1%
• Unemployment Claims expected at 461K.
• Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.

Range trading persists in gold market

Karlo Alfredo — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 06:41:09 +0000

Gold opened at $ 1113.40 and rose as much as to $ 1121 in Asia. But it then fell back off for most of the trade in London and U.S market to a low of $ 1098.90 and ended near its day’s low of $ 1099. Disappointing Consumer Confidence report sent the U.S. dollar index and treasuries higher on risk aversion and safe haven demand. On demand worries crude oil and copper also fell yesterday, whenever there is a deflationary fear in the market gold has always come under pressure. Gold Continues to be traded well within our expected trading range between $ 1098 – $ 1125, gold has resistance at $ 1113 and support lies at $ 1098, probability of breaking the support is higher for gold with next target $ 1092 and $ 1086.

Data and Events for U.S today:
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before house of financial service committee.
New home sales expected to be at 354K.

Gold pares gains

Karlo Alfredo — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 07:57:15 +0000

Gold opened at $ 1124.50 and swiftly turned positive in Asian market near to $ 1130. In London market it fell back and continued to drift lower in U.S market to as low as $ 1109.50, it rebounded couple of times from its low but finally market settled at $ 1112.50. U.S dollar index is consistently holding on its key levels, which is pushing the currency down. Gold had consecutively failed to cross above its current resistance found at $ 1127/ 30. Technically gold has gained some upside momentum from last Fridays close, but fundamental news of IMF gold sales and discount rate hike from Fed has punched the prices down. It seems like a tug of war between fundamental traders who intend to find gold prices much lower than the current levels and technical traders who trade on momentum gains. Gold might continue to be on the trading range of $ 1098 -$ 1125, till it finds a good reason for direction.

Data and Events for U.S today:
• Case-Shiller 20-city Index for December is expected to be at -3.0%
• Consumer Confidence for February expected at 55.0

Gold is proving to be a defensive asset

Karlo Alfredo — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 08:41:38 +0000

Gold opened at $ 1110.90 and fell as much as to $ 1100.50 in Asia. But it then rallied back higher throughout most of trade in London and U.S market to a high of $ 1126.50 and finally settled at $ 1121.50. Economic data release helped equity markets to climb lending some support for the gold market. Range trading continued in the gold market for most of the sessions in U.S market and towards the close it quickly traded above $ 1120. It’s a positive factor for gold to hold the price above $ 1120, but each run towards $ 1127 is met by good selling. Gold could mark itself within a trading range of $ 1098 and $ 1127 for this week and a convincing break of above $ 1127 could take us to $ 1141.

Data and Events for U.S today:
• No Major Data Release

Gold exhibits choppy sessions

Karlo Alfredo — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 08:47:42 +0000

Gold opened at $ 1106 and found support near $ 1098 in Asia. It climbed back higher in London & U.S market to see gain as high as $ 1123.50, but it then fell back to $ 1115 and finally settled at $ 1118. U.S dollar index rallied before the economic data release, worse than expected Unemployment claims made U.S dollar to retreat and gold to rally. It seems like market has absorbed the IMF gold sales and gold was well supported at $ 1098. Gold has made 3 days consecutively failure attempts to trade above $ 1125 / 27. This shows selling pressure is mounting on gold at $ 1123 – $ 1127 levels. Expecting gold to attempt to break the support at $ 1098 to give way to $ 1092 and $ 1078 support.

Data and Events for U.S today:
• Core CPI month on month expected to be at 0.2%

Gold plummets back to $1,100

Karlo Alfredo — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 07:16:11 +0000

Gold opened at $ 1118.50 and rose as much as to $ 1127 in London market. In U.S market gold exhibited choppy trading sessions as low as $ 1112, but it then rallied back higher to $ 1121 and finally gave up its gain to close at $ 1118. U.S dollar index climbed behind a better than expected economic data which supports to keep higher interest rates sometime in the future. In U.S market gold came under selling pressure which continued throughout the majority of the session. Even though Euro gave up its most of the gains made in the globex market gold holded relatively well, but later it came under further selling spree. As we anticipated technically gold has formed a double top and closed below $ 1121, gold has fallen below its trend line and in early hours of Thursdays trade gold was trading near its support $ 1098. Fundamental news that International Monetary Fund plans to sell 191.3 tons of gold has weighed on the spot gold prices which might have pushed it lower. Gold resistance is seen at $ 1113 and support lies at $ 1098.

Data and Events for U.S today:
• PPI Month on Month expected to be at 0.8%.
• Unemployment claims expected to be 440k.
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index expected to be at 17.2.

Gold stays above $ 1120

Karlo Alfredo — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 07:48:27 +0000

Gold opened at $ 1099.50 and traded consistently above $1100 in Asian market. It then advanced in London and U.S market sessions to as high as $ 1121.50 and ended near to its high at $ 1118.50. On Iran worries oil climbed above $77 and U.S dollar index fell significantly back below the 80 level. Greece worries are easing which has helped Euro to gain against U.S dollar. The much awaited close of $ 1120 is near in gold and yesterday it has closed just near to the key level giving us a multifaceted trend. Technical picture has improved in gold but resistance is round the corner at $ 1125 the February high. If gold succeeds to clear the $ 1125 next topside resistance is seen at $ 1138. A failure to take on $ 1125 and a close below $ 1121 could be marked as an end of the current run.

Data and Events for U.S today:
• Building Permits expected to be at 0.63Mln.
• Housing Starts expected to be at 0.58Mln
• Industrial Production forecasted to be at 0.7%
• FOMC meeting Minutes

Gold industry experts gather to mark sixth anniversary of Dubai Gold Advisory Group

Karlo Alfredo — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 13:16:18 +0000

Over 35 experts from the Dubai gold industry recently gathered together to mark the sixth anniversary of the formation of the Dubai Gold Advisory Group (DGAG) – an initiative of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre Authority (DMCCA). The Group’s mandate is to provide strategic insights, advice and expertise to develop the gold industry in the emirate.

At a reception held at DMCC’s flagship property, the Almas Tower in Jumeirah Lakes Towers, top industry officials celebrated the achievements of the Group during the past year, including the awarding of ‘Certificates of Appreciation’ to the oldest serving members of the DGAG. The awards were presented in recognition of their efforts and significant contributions to the development of the gold industry in Dubai.

Later in the evening, Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman, DMCC announced the name of the winner of the DMCC Gold Convention 2009 Gold price Prediction Competition. A one-ounce ‘Visions of Dubai’ gold coin sponsored by INTL Commodities DMCC was presented by Jeff Rhodes, CEO Intl Commodities DMCC to the winner, Mr. Farook Kassim, Managing Director al bogari Holdings. Mr. Kassim predicted the closing price of the nearest delivery DGCX gold futures contract on last trading day of the year of US$1096 an ounce, a figure that was within 40 cents of the actual price of US$ 1096.4.

The Dubai Gold Advisory Group was constituted in 2003 as an independent advisory body to work with the DMCC to position Dubai as an international hub for precious metals by contributing ideas, insights and expertise that would enhance Dubai’s reputation as an international precious metals refining, production, financing, trading and jewellery manufacturing hub.

The Group convenes every month at DMCC’s premises and provides a forum where developments impacting the industry are discussed and solutions are sought for a wide variety of issues. The Group also provides a live communication channel with the local market participants.

Source: DMCC Press Release (February 14, 2010). ”Gold industry experts gather to mark sixth anniversary of Dubai Gold Advisory Group”

Gold balanced

Karlo Alfredo — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 07:24:06 +0000

Gold opened at $ 1095 and saw slight losses in Asia and fell in London to as low as $ 1077.75. It then rallied back higher in U.S market to a high of $ 1092.50 and finally settled at $ 1087.75. Last week U.S dollar had a strong run against the euro and other currencies. It was reacting to market concerns over European financial and economic conditions. Gold has found some stability in price last week but its downside momentum is still in place. U.S market is closed today for Presidents day, thin volume trade could carry gold near to its 100 day moving average at $ 1100 and gold is expected to test its recent lows at $ 1075 this week.

Data and Events for U.S today:
• Market Holiday for Presidents Day